On National Consciousness

On National Consciousness

Dr. Akmal Hussain

Newspaper: The Daily Times Dated: Thursday, October 29, 2003

The debate on the Grundnorm has now happily shifted beyond the issue of whether or not the Grundnorm can be equated with the constitution. I had argued that the Grundnorm represented the core values, in terms of which a nation defined itself, while the constitution, which manifested these values was a set of rules that conditioned the use of state power. The usefulness of this distinction lay in the fact that the absence of a Grundnorm could explain why Pakistan’s constitution had been repeatedly violated in the past, and ceteris paribus, could well be violated in the future. Therefore the distinction between the Grundnorm and the constitution helped identify the need to tap into our core values as a nation and consciously achieve the necessary political consensus, which could give future stability to the constitution. With the two articles by my friend, Anjum Altaf (DT October 19 and 26, 2003), the debate has now shifted to the question of whether the concept of national consciousness is a useful political category at all in explaining and predicting political outcomes. Taking an empiricist position, he proposes that my concept of national consciousness is “deeply flawed”, as is Hegel’s related concept of the “spirit of a nation”. In this article I will briefly argue why Anjum may wish to reflect more deeply on his position. Anjum has rejected my proposal that Hegel’s concept of the ‘spirit of a nation’ with its ‘own defining principles’, could be used as one of the three philosophical sources to interpret the Grundnorm. (The other two being Kelsen’s theory of legal meaning and Hayek’s organizational theory). His rejection, drawn from the empiricist tradition, is quite understandable and is based on the view that it cannot be grounded in “any specific reality”. However, this cannot be an adequate basis for rejecting Hegel since all theory is an abstraction designed to understand phenomena whose essential nature is not spontaneously apparent from their concrete detail. Economists who make models or physicists who theorize are doing this all the time, not to divorce themselves from “reality”, but to be able to deal with it. After all Keynes’s ‘General Theory’ or Einstein’s Theory of Relativity had quite concrete consequences: The former resulted in greater government spending and increased employment, the latter enabled the development of nuclear energy. Of course Hegel’s conception of the spirit of a nation could be rejected like any other theory, on grounds that it is not useful either for explanation or prediction. Having done so, Anjum then logically, is obliged to also reject the concept of national consciousness, and further to brush aside all poets, since they are not grounded in “reality” either. It can be argued on the contrary that the concept of a nation cannot be posited without the concept of national consciousness. It is a fact of contemporary history that nations exist with certain specific national identities. Each national identity is constituted by language (and the world it implies), culture, forms of apprehending their humanity, a shared experience of the past or solidarity for a common purpose in the future. These elements of national identity feed into national consciousness. Indeed they enrich broader identities spanning regional groupings of countries and the global community in general. National consciousness is therefore the experiential dimension of historical bonding amongst a group of people, in terms of which they apprehend their identity and pursue shared goals for the future. Let me illustrate the concept of national consciousness, first with reference to the recent Dimbleby lecture by Monsieur Dominique de Villepin. Subsequently a few lines from Pakistan’s poets will be used to elaborate the concept further. Monsieur Villepin, the scholarly French Foreign Minister, in his lecture on October 19, 2003 on BBC, talked of the specific national identities of France and Britain respectively, explicated on the spirit, which moved each of these nations and the broader European identity. He explained how for several centuries France and Britain had undergone similar ordeals: The struggle for democracy against absolute monarchy, de-colonization, and the resistance against the Nazis. All this “forged a common heritage”, and reinforced a national consciousness manifested by a “…..fierce sense of independence, a certain national pride, the refusal to surrender, and an absolute faith in justice and freedom”. He stylized the British national identity in terms of their “art of brevity and pregnant pauses” and the French national identity in terms of “a liking for theoretical debate”. He declared a profound respect for the “acute awareness” of the British of their identity. Yet, precisely because of these specific national identities, a dialectic of mutually fertilizing growth was at play: “that otherness which helps to discover something new in themselves”. As national identities fertilize each other a broader European consciousness takes shape, composed of the common values of freedom, and justice. He argues that in this way Europe can become one of the pillars of the new world because “it embodies the universal values which must underpin a legitimate world order”. So while the concept of national consciousness may not be concrete, it is nevertheless real enough to be apprehended and deployed in international relations today by the French Foreign Minister. (In Anjum’s terms he could be called a practical man, yet significantly he loves poetry). National consciousness can be understood as a nation’s collective experience of itself, or the cadences of its specific creativity. It has features, which though real cannot be encapsulated in empiricist language forms (which eliminate ambiguity). However, they can be evoked through the resonance of poetic metaphor. Wittgenstein, the greatest linguistic philosopher of the 20th century perhaps referred to this when he said: “Of that which we cannot speak about, we must be silent” (Tractatus). That is why in some cases national consciousness is articulated through poets who strike a chord in the hearts of a nation. Take Sir Muhammad Iqbal who enabled the Muslims of India in the early 20th century to experience their creativity, freedom and authenticity as human beings: KHUDI KO KAR BULAND ITNA KE HARR TAQDEER SAY PEHLAY KHUDA BANDAY SAY KHUD PUCHAY BATTA TERI RAZA KAYA HAI “Actualize your creative identity to such a level that before articulating every destiny, God Himself may ask Man what is your will?” (Very rough translation) Faiz Ahmed Faiz wove from the specific images of nature and social life in the sub-continent, the tapestry of love and social transformation. He too evoked national consciousness in terms of a shared dream for a more humane society: RAAT YUUN DIL MEIN TERI KHOYE HUI, YAAD AIYE, JAISAY HALKAY SE CHALE BAAD-E-NASIM… “Last night your thought traversed the terrain of my heart, like some lost whisper of an evening breeze….” (Very rough translation) Najam Hussain Syed, articulated national consciousness in terms of the love and rebellion of the oppressed peasantry. He articulates the longing for change, and the sense of relatedness with the community by evoking the “unsaid” in our collective consciousness: KITAY DHOOR BUKALLIAN JHOKAAN VICHON, KIYOON AANDA AI NIGH HANGAARA MEINOON UNN AAKHI DA “Amidst the dust enveloped Hamlets, why do I feel the beckoning warmth of the unsaid?” (Very rough translation) Poets and artists are vital to articulating and developing national consciousness. They combine the specific images of a land and its people to evoke the aesthetic experience of a collective identity that may be national, or regional but is yet inseparable from the universal. No my dear friend Anjum, we cannot banish our poets and artists from the discourse of politics. They are essential to national consciousness as much as they are vital to our experience of being human. Roger Penrose, the Professor of Mathematics at Oxford University in his recent book on computers mind and physics (The Emperor’s New Clothes), has proposed that it is human consciousness which makes the human mind unique. This consciousness is a combination of emotion, thought and intuition. He argues that therefore it is impossible in principle to replicate human intelligence through a computer. Research work on Neural Physiology by Dr. Ayoub Ommaiya, using brain imaging techniques has traced in pictorial form the heat signature of the electro chemical impulse that flows through the brain during the human thought process. Interestingly he has shown that the most abstract thought of the Cerebral Cortex originates in the emotional centres of the brain. Dr. Ommaiya has shown through his clinical work that human thought is integrally linked with emotion and thereby provides support to the work of Professor Penrose on human consciousness. In this physiological sense, my dear friend, Anjum, please remember that human consciousness is not only real but is a concrete fact. If this is so, then national consciousness, which is the shared experiential dimension of a group of people living as a nation, must also be real. For a long while national consciousness may lie dormant in the dreams of poets. However, it can emerge more fully and become concrete through education, and an open and tolerant society: A society where people can interact with love and reason, where they can actualize their creative potential and thereby develop a common stake in citizenship. Their hearts will then pulsate together and this experience need not be banished to the realm of poets as Anjum has proposed. As Marcuse put it, “the sensuous, the playful, the calm and the beautiful can become forms of social existence”.

Power and Political Government: The Lessons Of Recent History

Power and Political Government: The Lessons Of Recent History

Dr. Akmal Hussain

Newspaper: The Daily Times Dated: Thursday, July 31, 2003

The current conflict between elements of the parliamentary opposition and the government (on issues such as the LFO, and the National Security Council) is essentially about the institutionalization of the role of the military in the formal political structures of the State. In this sense the contention is about the formal features of Pakistan’s democracy rather than its actual functioning. Historically there has been a gulf between the formal and the actual, in successive democratic dispensations in Pakistan. The military has been a protagonist in the informal power structure (called the Troika) that has characterized democratic governments in the past. At the same time politicians within democratic governments have sought the political influence of the military in their internecine power struggles. The current political conflict is focused on the formal aspects of the practice of power as opposed to its legitimacy. Yet Pakistan’s history has demonstrated that the legitimacy of a democratic government is drawn not so much from the formal or legalistic structures of power, but by its ability to improve the material conditions of the people, to provide security of life and property and the establishment of institutions through which our pluralistic society could find a voice in national decision making. To cast light on this phenomenon we will in this article briefly trace the actual practice of power within a formally democratic regime that became a prelude to the present political conjuncture. The government headed by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in its second term came with a two third majority in the National Assembly. This parliamentary strength could have been used to deepen democracy by reviving the economy, establishing transparent governance, bringing extremist militant groups within the law, and ensuring the independence of the judiciary. Instead an attempt was made to enhance the relative power position of the Prime Minister within the structure of state institutions. A systematic attempt was made to undermine and control institutions such as the Presidency, the Parliament, the Judiciary, the Press and (in the end) the Army, in order to lay the basis of authoritarian power within the democratic structure. An attempt was made not only to weaken the office of the President and relegate it to a purely ceremonial role but also to control members of the ruling party in parliament. This was done by passing the constitutional amendments thirteen and fourteen. Under the thirteenth Amendment the dreaded Article 58-2 (b) was withdrawn. (This article of the constitution gave the President powers to dismiss the government and hold fresh elections in case of extreme misgovernance). Under the fourteenth amendment the ability of elected members of the majority party to vote or even speak against the official position of the majority party in Parliament, on any legislative issue, was also withdrawn. Conflict between the government and the Judiciary soon followed. Tensions between these two institutions began when the government asserted its claim to judicial appointments, a claim that was resisted by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court on grounds of the independence of the judiciary. A political campaign against the Judiciary was launched during which disparaging remarks were made against it, both inside and outside the parliament. Subsequently, the Supreme Court decided to hear a writ petition for contempt of court against the Prime Minister and some of his associates, which if it had been decided against the Prime Minister, could have resulted in his disqualification. According to independent observers, an attempt was then made to “engineer a division within the apex court”. Inspite of the consequent division and conflict amongst judges of the Supreme Court, the Chief Justice resolutely went ahead with the trial of the Prime Minister. On the day fixed by the Supreme Court for the hearing, the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) transported thousands of its supporters to stage a protest against the Chief Justice. The charged mob broke the gate of the Supreme Court building and ransacked it, forcing the Supreme Court Judges to abandon the trial and retire to their chambers. The unprecedented mob attack on the Supreme Court by a ruling political party brought in its wake a major constitutional crisis. President Leghari accused the Prime Minister of inciting the attack and warning that “he would not allow the law of the jungle to prevail”. The Prime Minister retaliated by moving an impeachment notice against the President in Parliament and also sending him a summary advising him to sack the Chief Justice. The President was now faced with the choice of getting impeached or signing what he regarded as an illegal order against the Chief Justice. In a situation where the Army appeared unwilling to step in to resolve the crisis, the President decided to resign. Thus the powers that were earlier distributed between the Chief Justice, the President and the Prime Minister, were now concentrated in the hands of the Prime Minister. After the Judiciary the next target became the Press. The Government began to harass journalists who had exposed a series of corruption scandals. This harassment reached a dramatic stage when the Jang Group of newspapers (one of the largest in the country) which had been critical of the Prime Minister, was targeted by his regime. The publisher of the Newspaper was specifically pressurized to dismiss nine journalists from its staff, whom the government found “unacceptable”. The Press in Pakistan received another shock when the regime abducted the editor of an influential weekly newspaper, the Friday Times in a midnight raid on his home. After enhancing the power of the Prime Minister relative to some of the other institutions, focus now shifted to the Army. The Chief of Army Staff, General Jehangir Karamet, voiced the Army’s concern at the deteriorating economic, political and law and order situation in a letter to the Prime Minister. As the contention for power within the State structure continued, the underlying crisis worsened. On October 5, 1998 in his annual address at the Pakistan Navy War College in Lahore, General Karamet expressed his worries publicly as a prelude to stepping down rather than initiating military intervention. He argued that Pakistan could not afford “the destabilizing effects of polarization, vendettas and insecurity driven expedient policies”. The Prime Minister responded by indicating his intent to order premature retirement of the Army Chief. General Karamet chose to leave gracefully and tendered his resignation. Not long after the appointment of the new COAS General Musharraf, tensions between the Prime Minister and the Army intensified. In August 1999, matters came to a head when an attempt was made to appoint a new Army Chief without consulting with the existing one. Having given appointment orders to a new Army Chief (General Zia ur Rehman) while the existing one was in Colombo on an official trip, action was initiated (unsuccessfully as it turned out) to prevent the landing in Karachi of the PIA aircraft on which General Musharraf was returning. This brought to a dramatic head, the confrontation between the Prime Minister and the Army. The Army swiftly launched a coup d’etat that brought the military government of General Pervez Musharraf into power. It is perhaps indicative of the level of gravity the national crisis had reached, that there was no significant public protest at the overthrow of the popularly elected government. The Supreme Court in its validation of the military take-over referred to the crisis explicitly: “On 12th October 1999 a situation arose for which the constitution provided no solution and the intervention of the Armed Forces through an extra constitutional measure became inevitable which is hereby validated…”. In establishing the grounds of its verdict, there were three key elements in the Supreme Court judgment: “……all the institutions of the state were being systematically destroyed and the economy was in a state of collapse due to the self serving policies of the previous government…..”. “….. a situation had arisen where the democratic institutions were not functioning in accordance with the provisions of the constitution……” and “……there was no real democracy because the country was by and large under one man rule”. “……. An attempt was made to politicize the Army, destabilize it and create dissension within its ranks, and where the judiciary was ridiculed……..”. Governance during the late 1990s intensified to a critical level the three key elements of the crisis that threatened the state: (i) A collapsing economy. (ii) The threat to the life and property of citizens resulting from rampant crime, and the emergence of armed militant groups of religious extremists. (iii) The erosion of many of the institutions of democratic and effective governance. Given the dynamics of Pakistan’s power structure and the greater strength of the military relative to other institutions within it, when a democratic regime fails to deliver on these issues, power would be expected to flow to the military. Inspite of the adverse international environment for a coup d’etat, in October 1999, power did flow to the military when the crisis of the state had reached a critical level and the democratic government was seen to be exacerbating rather than resolving the crisis. Thus the institutionalization of the role of the military in the current political dispensation signifies the space that was lost by civilian politicians within Pakistan’s power structure. They cannot now expect to win on the negotiating table what they had lost on the political battlefield. To quote from Shakespeare: “The fault dear Brutus lies not in our stars but in ourselves that we are underlings.” The issue of the relative power enjoyed by civilian politicians in Pakistan’s political structure may be resolved by overcoming poverty, providing security to citizens and through the development of institutions and democratic culture in Pakistan’s political system. It cannot be resolved by undermining the political system (however unsatisfactory it may be) and creating another crisis of the State.

Questioning The Poverty Figure

Questioning The Poverty Figure

Dr. Akmal Hussain

Newspaper: Daily Times [Front Page] Dated: Monday, June 14, 2004

The government can take due credit for its growth performance this year. The GDP growth for the first time in more than a decade has reached 6.4 percent, and unlike last year it is supported by an increase in the investment rate from 16.7 percent last year to 18.1 percent this year. The fiscal deficit was reduced to 3.3 percent and State Bank reserves continued to rise. These figures are consistent and credible. What is not plausible however is the Finance Minister’s claim that the percentage of population below the poverty line has declined by 4.2 percentage points compared to the level in the year 2000. There is a fudge in this figure and the reasons are as follows: The composition of growth is contrary to the official claim of poverty reduction: The agriculture sector where the majority of the poor subsist has shown a sharp decline in growth from 4.1 percent last year to 2.6 percent this year. It is the large-scale manufacturing sector with a growth rate of 17.1 percent, which has determined the overall GDP growth performance. Even in this sector, growth is predicated on a relatively small group of industries, namely consumer durables, automobiles, textiles and cement. These are industries with low employment elasticities and where highly skilled and relatively well-paid workers are employed. Therefore these are hardly the industries whose growth could be expected to reduce poverty so quickly. Much less can they be regarded to be producing goods for the poor. Income inequality between the richest 25 percent and the poorest 25 percent of the population has been increasing over the last decade. Even though data for the last two years is not available, yet the composition of growth suggests that income inequality has remained acute. The fact that inflation in the prices of the poor person’s basket (food items), has increased at a higher rate than the average inflation rate, provides further indication that the distribution of real income between the rich and the poor may have become more unequal. When income inequality is high and increasing, a small increase in GDP growth cannot be expected to lead to such a sharp reduction in poverty as claimed by the Finance Minister. The claim of poverty reduction is being made on the basis of a small sample survey of only about 5000 households, selected without regard to provincial coverage and conducted for only one quarter, April to June this year, when earnings from wheat harvesting enable a larger consumption expenditure by the poor. The results of this small sample survey are being compared to sample results in the base year drawn from the standard and periodic Pakistan Integrated Household Survey (PIHS). This has a much larger sample (14,000 households) with representation from each province, and averages out the seasonal variations in household expenditure by covering four quarters (one year). Given the quite different design of the sample surveys in the year 2000 and the year 2004 respectively, the results are technically incomparable. It would be like comparing apples with oranges. The specific differences in design of the two surveys indicated above, are such that a reduction in poverty would tend to arise from the differences in sample design rather than a change in the real magnitude of poverty. A professionally sound assessment of changes in the levels of poverty over the last four years would have to wait till the next round of the PIHS is conducted. Given the level of income inequality and the composition of growth, the recent increase in the GDP growth rate can at best provide grounds for the hope that poverty may have stopped growing. There is certainly neither adequate evidence nor any analytical reason to suggest such a sharp reduction in poverty (4 percentage points), as the Finance Minister in cavalier fashion proclaimed before an incredulous populace. He can take well-deserved credit for his achievements in terms of overall investment, growth and financial stability. Not for having substantially reduced poverty. To do so would be to assume out the very problem that is to be confronted, now that we have the fiscal space.

Structuring The Peace Dialogue

Structuring The Peace Dialogue

Dr. Akmal Hussain

Newspaper:The Daily Times Dated: Thursday, 14th August 2003

The South Asian Free Media Association (SAFMA) has made a significant contribution to Track-II diplomacy by organizing a conference earlier this week in Islamabad, on the Indo Pakistan peace dialogue. On this occasion parliamentarians of the major political parties, prominent journalists and experts from both India and Pakistan conferred on why and how to move forward. In a remarkable demonstration of the popular will, a consensus for peace was reached amongst public representatives from across the political spectrum in both countries. From the flamboyant religious rhetoric of Maulana Fazlur Rehman of the right wing, to the grave tones of Chaudhary Shujaat’s carefully worded statement in the centre, and the passionate iconoclasm of Abid Hassan Minto on the left, inspite of differing premises, the common denominator was peace. Similarly on the Indian side Laloo Prasad used pre-modern imagery of the munn (heart), while Swaraj Kaushal combined cold analytical logic with Amrita Preetam’s poetry. MJ Akbar in his post-modern style wove resonant human images into a rich tapestry of historical discourse. As in the case of the Pakistanis, the common refrain from the Indian speakers was to replace the pain of the past with a healing process of peace. A significant section of the Indian delegates argued that the prerequisite for the peace process is the creation of a “conducive” atmosphere. This is a euphemism for the view of some Indian government officials that an end to cross border terrorism should precede the peace talks. My argument during the conference was that placing pre-conditions to a dialogue is inconsistent with the invitation for a dialogue. Clearly India’s most important concern is the issue of cross border terrorism while that of Pakistan is the unresolved Kashmir dispute. Essential to the idea of an India-Pakistan dialogue is that both sides would address each other’s concerns. Thus, during the dialogue Pakistan should address India’s core concern about cross border terrorism, while India should address Pakistan’s core concern of the Kashmir dispute. Clearly, it is illogical for one side to demand the resolution of what it sees as the most important issue of contention, prior to the dialogue. For India to demand a resolution of the problem of cross border terrorism before a dialogue on other issues, is equivalent to Pakistan’s earlier position that the Kashmir dispute should be resolved before a dialogue on economic cooperation. If a “conducive” atmosphere has to be created before a dialogue begins, then even if Pakistan does its best to control cross border terrorism, the two sides could continue to argue indefinitely, whether adequate efforts have been made in this regard and what constitutes a “conducive” atmosphere. In such a situation the dialogue would never begin. Therefore for a dialogue to begin and end successfully it must have four features: (i) It must be unconditional, i.e. there should be no pre-conditions attached to starting it. (ii) If it is not to become a dialogue of the deaf, both sides should be prepared to address each other’s concerns. These concerns must be simultaneously addressed so that the sequencing of the discussion does not reflect the priorities of any one side. (iii) The dialogue should be uninterrupted and as Mr. Manishanker Iyer so wisely pointed out, it should be uninterruptible. An uninterrupted dialogue is necessary for success to provide confidence to both sides that all issues will continue to be discussed until resolution, even though the time scale of resolution of various issues is necessarily quite different. Similarly an uninterruptible dialogue is necessary in view of the possibility that exogenous factors (such as terrorist acts to derail the dialogue by entities hostile to the dialogue but uncontrollable by either side) could end the dialogue before its successful completion. (iv) Both sides should be prepared to negotiate all issues and allow the dialogue to have its own dynamic without demanding preconceived outcomes i.e. both sides should seek to persuade and be prepared to get persuaded by the other on the basis of logical argument and a spirit of give and take. As Wittgenstein postulated, “all philosophy is an act of persuasion”. Perhaps the same holds true for diplomacy. The above four features of an India-Pakistan dialogue imply that the commitment to start a dialogue should be as total as the commitment to see it through to fruition. The question that now arises is, why should a dialogue with these four features be on the historical agenda for India and Pakistan? The answer may lie in the recognition of the following three propositions by State and society on both sides: A balance of military power exists between Pakistan and India at both the conventional and nuclear levels, thereby making any military initiative by either side infeasible. This is illustrated by the fact that the Kargil initiative by Pakistan was counter productive just as was the Indian attempt at “coercive diplomacy” through large scale mobilization of conventional forces in a war like posture. A state of no war, no peace with a simmering Kashmir dispute between nuclear armed neighbours creates two grave dangers that are unacceptable for both sides in particular and by the international community in general: (a) An unacceptably high risk of an accidental nuclear war resulting from a misconception about the adversary’s intent at any moment during a continued state of military tension. (b) A low threshold of a conventional conflict escalating into a nuclear exchange. The imperative to escalate military expenditure in a state of continued confrontation between the two countries would make the conventional and military deterrence in the long run unstable. This is because the pace of up-gradation of weapon systems may differ between the two sides.  At the same time such an arms race would draw away such a large proportion of the economic resources of the two countries that their ability to overcome poverty and provide economic well being to their people would be undermined. In such a situation where a significant proportion of the population does not have an economic stake in citizenship, the resulting social polarization and violence could place an unacceptable stress on society and State. Thus, at the current moment in history, national security in the sense of security of both the Citizen and the State, requires peace between India and Pakistan. The deliberations at the SAFMA conference earlier this week clearly showed that there is a consensus to pursue peace amongst the citizens and their elected representatives in India and Pakistan. The change in mindset that one has been advocating in these columns appears to be occurring amongst public representatives as well as professionals. The imperative of the economic and political forces impelling the two countries towards peace is also apparent. Now is the time to bring our respective civilizations to bear to remove the shadow of war and enhance life. This is the moment to lay the foundations of a lasting peace in the Sub-continent and a better life for the next generation. Will the governments of both countries have the courage and wisdom to grasp this opportunity?

The Constitution and The Nation

The Constitution and The Nation

Dr. Akmal Hussain

Newspaper: The Daily Times Dated: Thursday, October 16, 2003

Ejaz Haider (DT Oct 7) and Jan Sitwat Mil (The Nation Oct 3) have both made valuable contributions to what is becoming a fertile debate. Fertile, because it may help in both understanding why in Pakistan, attempts at constitutional stability have met with repeated failure, and in developing a consensus on core values, which could ensure such stability in the future. As a humble contribution to this process of understanding, I will in this article, briefly discuss the source of a constitution at three levels: (1) The nature of legal meaning inherent in a constitution (2) The nature of organizational rules and (3) The ‘spirit’ of a nation. As a point of departure it may be helpful to clarify the distinction between a constitution and what Kelsen calls a Grundnorm. The problem with Mr. Haider’s argument (see DT Sept 5 and Oct 7) originates in the fact that he uses these two distinctly different terms as if they were the same. The constitution is a legal document specifying what Hayek calls a “set of rules” concerned on the one hand with the internal organization of the state and with constraints on its actions on the other. By contrast the Grundnorm as I had argued in my article (DT Sept 25) is that particular consensus which is organic to a nation’s essential nature, and which ensures that no entity (“endogenous” or “exogenous”), would undermine the constitution. I had suggested that the very fact that the essential character of Pakistan’s constitution had been repeatedly violated by both elected governments and the military, was evidence of the fact that a Grundnorm has not yet emerged in Pakistan. Mr. Mil (see The Nation, Oct 3) in his subsequent article has further reinforced the distinction between the constitution and the term Grundnorm, when he says, “Kelsen’s Grundnorm was neither the constitution nor an ideal … It is a norm that lies at the foundation of a society. It is what societies held sacred and dear at their very core and from which flow all other norms.” By identifying the constitution with the Grundnorm, Mr. Haider has in fact assumed out the problem of explaining the repeated undermining of the constitution resulting from the actions of elected governments on some occasions and by the military on others. The second consequence of using the terms ‘constitution’ and ‘Grundnorm’ synonymously, is that the issue of interventions against the constitution can only be treated through his injunction that the constitution must not be violated, if the ‘system’ is to function. Mr. Haider’s injunction is a tautology, even though an extremely important one. It translates into the axiom: The necessary condition for the functioning of a system is, that the rules in terms of which it is defined, must be followed. However, this axiom needs to be developed into a theoretical construct, on the basis of a distinction between the constitution and the Grundnorm. (A theoretical construct has both explanatory and predictive power, while an axiom does not). This would enable us to explain in Pakistan’s case, why the constitution has been so frequently replaced by new documents in the past, and is likely to happen in the future again, ceteris paribus. Such an explanation is important in order to identify the necessary conditions for achieving a sustainable constitution. It is also important in the practical sense of initiating the social and political process through which the necessary conditions for sustainability can be brought into existence. In understanding the vital distinction between the constitution (a legal document), and the Grundnorm, one may ask the question, what gives meaning to law? Is law (as some scholars hold) simply a set of orders backed by sanctions? Take the example of a person held up by gangsters who command him to give up his wallet or get shot. This is certainly a command backed up by sanctions. The poor fellow may actually give up his wallet for pragmatic reasons. Yet his compliance is not a legal obligation. Thus the question of a legal obligation is more than merely the fact of a command backed up by sanctions. Kelsen argues that acts have legal meaning in the context of norms. It is linked with the idea of what one ought or ought not to do. People normally do not steal because of the norm that one ought to follow criminal statutes. This depends upon the norm that one ought to follow the constitution. The question is what is the norm in terms of which it is obligatory to follow the constitution? This is the Grundnorm, which is part of the civilizational content of a nation, the core values in terms of which a nation experiences its identity or defines its common purpose. Let us examine the concept of a constitution as a set of organizational rules. In this context F.A. Hayek, the Nobel Prize winning Austrian economist, distinguishes between a “spontaneous order” and an organization. While in a spontaneous order individuals are bound only by “general rules of just conduct”, in an organization they are subject to “specific directions by authority”. It can be argued that while a constitution constitutes a set of organizational rules governing the conduct of the state, the source of a constitution is embedded in what Hayek calls a “spontaneous order” and Kelsen calls a “Grundnorm”. The third level at which the source of a constitution can perhaps be determined is what G.W.F. Hegel calls the “spirit” of a nation. Hegel in his lectures on the Philosophy of World History, argues that the spirit of a nation when it becomes fully developed, becomes aware of itself. It is a consciousness of “its own ends and interests, and of the principles which underlie them”. For Hegel, the spirit of each nation has its own specific defining principles, and each nation seeks to realize its own end. Yet the “substance of the spirit is freedom”. The issue in Pakistan is not of condoning military intervention in the structure of the constitution. Of course it is unacceptable to all those who wish any constitution to function. But then we would also have to confront the fact that destabilization of the constitutional order has repeatedly occurred through the unbridled pursuit of power by elected politicians as much as by the military. The challenge is to reach a consensus on the Grundnorm so that whatever constitution is constructed on its basis will be sustainable. The Grundnorm pulsates in the heart of a nation fully conscious of itself. We are not there yet. A process of education, enlightenment, and reasoned debate is needed. Such a process that combines love with reason will lead to it. The national consciousness embodied in the Grundnorm is the source of the constitution and gives it legal meaning. It is the bottom line in our psyche, which prevents us from undertaking certain actions, and validating others. If such a Grundnorm does not exist, the constitution would be (as General Zia ul Haq once put it) “just a piece of paper”. It would be violated whenever it is feasible in terms of power play to do so. On the other hand if the Grundnorm existed, not as a set of abstract principles but as values organic to our nationhood, then it would not be possible for any individual or group of individuals whether armed or unarmed, to do so. They would have to face popular resistance.

The Imminent Peace

The Imminent Peace

Dr. Akmal Hussain

Newspaper: The Daily Times Dated: Thursday, 25 December 2003

As President Musharraf undertook the daunting task of overcoming Pakistan’s multi faceted crisis, he realized early on that peace with India is an essential element to his effort. Given the gathering storm of a deepening economic crisis, rising violence by religious extremists and institutional tensions within the state structure, bringing the ship of state to an even keel required boldness and flexibility. President Musharraf has demonstrated both. Boldness was required to make the protagonists realize that this is a historic moment when there is a real opportunity for peace and building a better future for both Pakistan and India. Flexibility was required to maximize the gains for Pakistan in a rapidly changing situation. The logic of both boldness and flexibility at the tactical level can only be grasped in a strategic perspective. Hence in this article we will examine the implications of Pakistan’s new foreign policy initiative in the changed strategic context faced by Pakistan and India respectively. A series of initiatives were taken by President Musharraf to break the deadlock: The first was an offer for unconditional talks with India. The second was the offer to cooperate with India in together combating terrorism in the two countries. The third was recognition of the reality that the principal threat to the integrity of Pakistan was not external i.e. from another state, but internal i.e. from the forces of religious extremism within the country. The fourth is the latest statement during an interview with Reuters News Agency (December 18) that the UN resolutions on Kashmir could be set aside in the process of negotiating the Kashmir dispute, provided both sides showed flexibility. As a result of these initiatives, Pakistan is gaining the support of the international community for the maturity and sagacity of its foreign policy with the attendant prospect of acquiring additional leverage in negotiations on the Kashmir issue. The tactical foreign policy initiatives also set the stage for a possible breakthrough during the SAARC Summit when a number of key decisions could be taken for the economic welfare of the peoples of the region. The most important of these is an agreement on a South Asian Preferential Trade Agreement (SAPTA), which could be a step towards a South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA). During the days of the SAARC Summit there is also the possibility that the process of bilateral talks between India and Pakistan may begin with an informal exchange between the leadership of the two countries. When the President in his Reuters interview last Friday said he was prepared to be “bold and flexible” in an attempt to resolve the Kashmir dispute, it was clearly an approach to the process of negotiations and not any particular unilateral concession prior to the process. Let us make a simple proposition on the nature of negotiations: If India and Pakistan wish to negotiate, then the very decision to negotiate signifies the willingness of both parties to set aside their stated prior positions. Further more if a resolution of the dispute is to be achieved, clearly at some point in the negotiating process, a common ground must be found that is different from the initial conflicting standpoints. It is in this context of negotiations that “boldness” and “flexibility” provides the advantage of speed and efficacy for gaining ground. By contrast, diffidence and inflexibility by one party during negotiation would result in it losing ground as the other party runs circles around it. The initiatives taken so far, have been executed with skill and sagacity by Pakistan’s able Foreign Minister, Mr. Kasuri. They indicate that we now have for the first time in 5 decades, a Kashmir policy rather than a mere stand. A stand is a rigid statement of principle in a deadlock within which there is verbal repetition but no progress and no practical gains on the ground. A policy is a nuanced series of steps to break the deadlock and make progress in optimizing real gains for the country. The present moment in the sub-continent’s history is defined both by objective circumstances and the individuals at play. It provides an opportunity for establishing a lasting peace because it is now a strategic imperative of not only society but also the state in both India and Pakistan. Let us see how this is so in each case. At the economic level India having established the industrial base for indigenous technological change and a high growth trajectory, needs to sustain its high GDP growth into the future. This creates the imperative of (i) establishing an efficient infrastructure for the supply of oil, gas and electricity and (ii) developing markets for its manufactured exports in South Asia and abroad. Both these strategic needs impel India to seek peace with Pakistan. Oil and gas pipelines from Central and West Asia to be economically feasible would have to pass through Pakistan, just as surplus electricity from Pakistan can be imported by India. Similarly, if an integrated South Asian market is to emerge for the welfare of all South Asian countries Indo-Pak peace is essential. Peace and economic cooperation with Pakistan is necessary for India not only to secure its strategic economic interests but also to maintain its secular democratic polity. A high growth, open economy framework for India today is inseparable from a liberal democratic political structure. Therefore the growing social forces of Hindu nationalism, intolerant of its minorities will undermine India’s secular democratic structure as much as its economic endeavour. Continued tension between India and Pakistan, will only fuel extremist religious forces in both countries, to the detriment of their economy and polity. While India needs peace to graduate into an advanced industrial economy, Pakistan with its relatively fragile economy needs peace for its very economic survival. Its economy is growing far below its potential, has stagnating exports, a fragile exchange rate, a major poverty problem, and incipient social forces of religious extremism that can grow rapidly if poverty persists and tension with India continues. Peace with India will mean a substantially improved environment for domestic and foreign investment. Those Pakistani industries that can achieve international competitiveness will grow rapidly within the large regional market of SAFTA. At the same time the capital costs of investment in Pakistan will be reduced as cheaper capital and intermediate goods from India (compared to imports from Europe and the U.S.) become available, thereby accelerating GDP growth. The real incomes of Pakistan’s middle and low-income groups will also increase as they get cheaper consumer goods from India. Electricity costs for Pakistani consumers will fall as Pakistan’s thermal power plants achieve better capacity utilization through export of electricity across the border to India. I have argued that through peace, both India and Pakistan can reap economic benefits for their people, secure their respective democratic structures against the forces of religious extremism, and provide security to their citizens. Thus, for the first time in the post independence period the economy and the polity of India and Pakistan (although in differing ways) are at a turning point. The pursuit of development, democracy and national security impel both countries towards making peace. In August 1947, Prime Minister Jawahar Lal Nehru in his moving speech referred to independence as India’s tryst with destiny. Today we are in another moment of destiny. The dreams of the people of India and Pakistan at independence for a better life can be fulfilled by living together in peace within two independent states. The people in both countries, already aware of this fact, beckon their leaders to grasp this moment. Will they?

A VISION FOR SOUTH ASIA: Specific Policy Actions (Part-III)

A VISION FOR SOUTH ASIA: Specific Policy Actions (Part-III)

Dr.Akmal Hussain

Newspaper: Daily Times  Dated: Thursday, May 26 2005

South Asia can contribute to the emergence of a 21 st century civilization by helping to establish a sustainable relationship between individuals, commodities and nature. In this article we will first outline an alternative perspective on development and then indicate a set of specific policy initiatives that can be undertaken to begin the process of actualizing the great human potential of South Asia. An Alternative Approach to Economic Development Aristotle in his Nicomachean Ethics propounds a relationship between human beings and commodities, which seems strange to contemporary economic theory but may be vital in building a new 21 st century perspective on economic development. Aristotle proposed that it is human functioning that gave richness to life and not commodities, which are merely useful. The Nobel Prize winning economist Amartya Sen in his recent work has drawn upon Aristotle's proposition to go beyond the notion of living standards in terms of just income or goods. A.K. Sen proposes the concept of capabilities and entitlements whereby in addition to requiring certain goods and services for oneself one may also value one's capability to besocially useful . This helps to clarify that the issue of overcoming poverty is not simply ‘delivering' a certain quantity of food, but also providing complementary services such as drinking water, sanitation, health care and education. Thus A.K. Sen laid the theoretical basis of what has come to be known in the literature as “human development”. Sen argues that food, health care and education constitute entitlements of citizens since they are necessary for actualizing human capabilities. It can be argued that Sen's capabilities and entitlements formulation is rooted in the premise that our sociality is essential to human functioning. If this indeed is the case, then could we not extend the scope of Sen's concept of entitlements to include high quality universities, hospitals, a free press, peace, human security and the entire range of political rights associated with democracy? These rights and institutions are surely necessary for human beings to fulfill the peculiarly human need to function in “a socially useful way”. If we could broaden Sen's concept in this way then the measure of “standard of living” in the theory of economic development would include not just goods and services but the whole set of social and political institutions that are necessary for what Aristotle called “human functioning”. Concretizing the Vision A vision is efficacious to the extent that it can be concretized. This requires bringing to bear the new consciousness of South Asian cooperation to undertake five specific policy actions for our new perspective on economic development: 1. Let the people meet Visas restrictions should be eased to allow citizens of each country of South Asia to travel freely to enjoy the natural beauty of the region, and to participate in the social and cultural events of the various countries of South Asia. Tourism alone could make a major contribution to the GDP growth of the region. It would at the same time be pro poor growth since it would generate employment and incomes for every body from the porters, road side cafes, restaurants, hotels and transport companies. Such travel and social interaction would help in the rediscovery of the shared civilizational values and help build more pluralistic societies and strengthen democracy in the region. 2. South Asia Health Foundation (SAHF) Ill health is a major trigger that pushes people into poverty and keeps productivity at a low level in South Asia. Therefore provision of high quality preventive and curative health facilities would be a strategic intervention for poverty reduction, human development and economic growth in the region. It is proposed that a South Asia Health Foundation may be instituted with the following objectives: (i) To set up district level general hospitals at the highest international standards in selected districts of each of the countries of South Asia. (ii) Each SAHF hospital would have a network of high quality basic health units and also reproductive and child health care clinics. The latter would provide pre natal and post natal care to mothers, family planning services and basic pediatric services to infants. (iii) Each SAHF hospital would initiate community-based campaigns for hygienic drinking water, sanitation, immunization and control of epidemics. The doctors and staff of the SAHF hospitals in a particular country could be drawn from other South Asian countries to signify the commitment of South Asians to each other. The healing and humanity in these hospitals would stand as a living symbol of both the promise and fulfillment of South Asian cooperation. 3. South Asia Education Foundation A South Asia Education Foundation may be instituted on the basis of a private-public partnership with contributions from multi lateral donor agencies. The purpose of the foundation would be to establish a network of schools as well as universities at the best international standards to help develop the knowledge base to prepare South Asia for its leadership role in the new world that is taking shape. The network of universities could enable students and researchers to interact intensively across international boundaries in South Asia and create a community of scholars that could produce new knowledge in the natural and social sciences. 4. Private Sector Joint Venture Infrastructure Projects •  India, Pakistan and Bangladesh should cooperate closely in establishing gas pipelines in South Asia for transporting gas from Iran, Qatar and Turkmenistan and even Myanmar. Specifically the ongoing official negotiations on transporting oil and gas from Iran through Pakistan to India should be brought to an early and successful conclusion. To strengthen the mutual inter dependence between India and Pakistan the recent proposal by Mr. Manishanker Iyer for transporting diesel fuel from Panipat to Lahore should also be taken up quickly. In the context of developing energy markets of these resources, power trading in the region calls for establishment of high voltage interconnections between the national grids of the countries of the region. •  Facilitating private sector joint projects in building a network of motorways and railways at international quality standards through out South Asia. These modern road and rail networks would connect all the major commercial centers, towns and cities of SAARC countries with each other and with the economies of Central Asia, West Asia and East Asia. •  Facilitating regional and global joint venture projects for developing new ports along both the western and eastern seaboard of South Asia, and at the same time up-grading existing ports to the highest international standards. •  Facilitating regional investment projects in building a network of airports, together with cold storages and warehouses that could stimulate not only tourism but also export of perishable commodities such as milk, meat, fish, fruits and vegetables. 5. Restructuring Growth for Rapid Poverty Reduction Economic growth must not only be accelerated but restructured in such a way that its capacity to alleviate poverty is enhanced for given growth rates of GDP. In this context of achieving pro poor growth, three sets of measures can be undertaken at the country as well as the regional levels: •  Joint venture projects need to be undertaken to rapidly accelerate the growth of those sub sectors in agriculture and industry respectively which have relatively higher employment elasticities and which can increase the productivity and hence put more income into the hands of the poor. These sub sectors include production and regional export of high value added agricultural products such as milk, vegetables, fruits, flowers and marine fisheries. •  Regional network of support institutions in the private sector can be facilitated for enabling small scale industries located in regional growth nodes, with specialized facilities such as heat treatment, forging, quality control systems and provision of skill training, credit and marketing facilities in both the country specific and regional economies. •  A SAARC Fund for vocational training may be established. The purpose of this Fund would be to help establish a network of high quality vocational training institutes for the poor. Improved training in market demanded skills would enable a shift of the labour force from low skill sector to higher skill sectors and thereby increase the productivity and income earning capability of the poor. It would at the same time generate higher growth for given levels of investment by increasing factor productivity. CONCLUSION If South Asia is to play a leadership role in the new world that is taking shape, then it must undertake specific initiatives within a new policy paradigm for pursuing peace, overcoming poverty and protecting the life support systems of the planet. However this requires that governments move out of a mindset that regards an adversarial relationship with a neighbouring country as the emblem of patriotism, affluence of the few at the expense of the many, as the hallmark of development, individual greed as the basis of public action, and mutual demonization as the basis of inter state relations. We have arrived at the end of the epoch when we could hope to conduct our social, economic and political life on the basis of such a mindset. This is a historic moment when the people of South Asia have recognized that they have a new tryst with destiny. They are affirming that their security and well being lies not in inter-state conflict but in peace and cooperation. Let the governments hearken to the call of their people.

A VISION FOR SOUTH ASIA: Humanity, Nature and Growth (Part-II)

A VISION FOR SOUTH ASIA: Humanity, Nature and Growth (Part-II)

Dr.Akmal Hussain

Newspaper: Daily Times  Dated: Wednesday, May 25 2005

In the preceding article we argued that for the first time in the last three centuries, a dramatic shift is taking place in the center of gravity of the global economy, from the countries of the West to those of South Asia and China. As South Asia acquires a leadership position in the global economy over the next two decades, a change is required in the policy paradigm of nation states: from competition to cooperation, from the production of new weapons as the emblem of state power to the nurturing of a new sensibility that can sustain life on earth. In this article we will suggest that if sustainable development is to take place in the global economy, indeed if life itself is to survive on the planet, a new relationship will have to be sought between human beings, nature and economic growth. South Asia with its living folk tradition of pursuing human needs within the framework of human solidarity and harmony with nature may be uniquely equipped to face this challenge. The Global Ecological Crisis In perhaps the largest collaborative scientific effort in the world, some of the leading environmental scientists and international institutions have recently come together to conduct the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment of planet earth. The report will be published in September this year, but the preliminary results indicate an ecological crisis. The results show that over the past fifty years, humans in the process of economic growth have caused “substantial and largely irreversible loss in the diversity of life on Earth”. The crisis is made even more grave by the fact that “60% of the ecosystem services that were examined in the study are being degraded…. including fresh water…. air and the regulation of regional and local climate”. The existing process of production and consumption of goods involves generating toxic gases and materials into the air, land and water systems. Since the earth's ecology has a maximum loading capacity, it is clear therefore that the present consumerist culture, patterns of economic growth, and the underlying institutional structure, cannot be sustained indefinitely into the future without undermining the life support systems of the planet. For sustaining life on earth, a new relationship will have to be sought between human beings, nature and economic growth. Thus we may be either on the threshold of ecological disaster or the construction of a new human civilization. In this situation, for South Asia to lead the world means introducing new forms of social production, new institutions and a new consciousness that can sustain life on earth. The New Sensibility Today the market is being apotheosized as the mythical space in which the individual can be free and yet provided with plenty by the hidden hand of the market. Yet, inherent to the capitalist accumulation process is the systematic inculcation of an insatiable desire to possess goods. The subliminal language of advertisement does not represent goods, but rather fantasizes goods such that they appear to us not in terms of their material attributes, but as magical receptacles of such qualities as beauty, efficacy and power. Thus, qualities, which we actually possess as human beings are transposed into goods, and the individual gets locked into an endless pursuit of acquisition. The sensibility of consumerism, which the market systematically inculcates, is inconsistent with conserving the environment. The life support systems of our planet cannot be sustained beyond a certain limit in output levels inspite of any foreseeable technological change towards an environmentally gentle direction. As Mahatama Gandhi put it, “There is enough in the world for everybody's need but not for everybody's greed”. Contemporary market culture is marked by the atomization of society, the inculcation of greed, egotism and the estrangement of the individual from his humanity. A new more humane sensibility must form the basis of a sustainable relationship between man, nature and economic growth. Perhaps South Asia can contribute to the contemporary world by weaving from the golden threads of its folk cultures the tapestry of a 21 st century sensibility. In South Asia the interaction of diverse civilizations across millennia has brought to the surface certain fundamental features of each civilization, which while being rooted in its specific linguistic, religious and cultural form are essentially of a universal nature. Three characteristics of a South Asian sensibility can be articulated: •  The other constitutes the essential fertilizing force for the growth of the self. The otherwhen brought into a dynamic counter-position to the self , helps to transcend the ego and thereby enlarge the experience of the self . To recall the words of Shah Hussain, the Punjabi Sufi poet. “You are the woof and you the warp, you are in every pore, says Shah Hussain Faqir, I am not, all is you”. •  In the South Asian tradition, (whether the muslim Sufis, or the Bhaktis or the Buddhists) there is a detachment from the desire for commodities, which are seen as merely useful . Of course the Greek philosopher Aristotle, held a similar view when he observed in his Nichomachean Ethics, that “goods cannot have value since they are merely useful. It is human functioning that is of value.” However this proposition is no more part of the contemporary Western culture. Unlike the West however the voice of the Sufis still echoes in contemporary South Asian folk culture: “Those who have accumulated millions, that too is mere dust.” (Shah Hussain); and the Tamil poet Kambar in describing a good society says, “There was no one who did not have enough, there was no one who had more than enough.” •  Nature in the South Asian tradition is treated not as an exploitable resource but as a reference point to our own human nature. Nature is the context within which we experience our connection with the eternal, and sustain economic and social life. The Bishnoi community in Rajasthan and the peasants of Bhutan still conduct their production and social life in harmony with nature, as part of their spiritual beliefs. Najam Hussain Syed, the contemporary Sufi poet of the Punjab writes, “Plant the moonlit tree in your courtyard, nurture it, and thereby remain true to the beloved.” Amidst its diversity South Asia has shared civilizational propensities of transcending the ego as a means of fulfillment, of locating the need for goods in the context of human responsibility and of harmonizing economic and social life with nature. It is this South Asian sensibility and the associated human values that could be brought to bear in building a new relationship between humans, nature and production to sustain life in the 21 st century world.

A VISION FOR SOUTH ASIA Leading the World (Part-I)

A VISION FOR SOUTH ASIA Leading the World (Part-I)

Dr.Akmal Hussain

Newspaper: Daily Times  Dated: Tuesday, May 24 2005

This series of articles attempts to articulate a vision of South Asia in the new world that is taking shape. A key role for South Asia in the global economy is anticipated, an alternative policy paradigm is proposed, and some of the common denominators of the South Asian personality are indicated. Finally, specific policy actions are formulated, to start the process of concretizing the vision. I. South Asia can lead the World South Asia is at a historic moment of transforming the economic conditions of its people and playing a leadership role not only in the global economy but also in the development of human civilization in the 21 st century. For the first time in the last 350 years, the global economy is undergoing a shift in its center of gravity from the continents of Europe and North America to Asia. If present trends in GDP growth in China, U.S. and India respectively continue, then in the next two decades China will be the largest economy in the world, U.S. the second largest and India the third largest economy. However, if South Asian countries develop an integrated economy, then South Asia can become the second largest economy in the world after China. Given the geographic proximity and economic complementarities between South Asia on the one hand and China on the other, this region could become the greatest economic powerhouse in human history. Yet the world cannot be sustained by economic growth alone. Human life is threatened with the environmental crisis and conflicts arising from the culture of greed, from endemic poverty and the egotistic projection of military power. Societies in this region have a rich cultural tradition of experiencing unity through transcending the ego, of creative growth through human solidarity and a harmony with nature. In bringing these aspects of their culture to bear in facing contemporary challenges, the people of this region could bring a new consciousness and institutions to the global market mechanism. In so doing South Asia and China can together take the 21 st century world on to a new trajectory of sustainable development and human security. It can be an Asian century that enriches human civilization. II. South Asia and the New Paradigm of Policy All great epochs of economic and cultural achievement are associated with an intellectual renaissance. So must it be for South Asia as it faces the prospect of a leadership role in the 21 st century. Let us begin with a critical examination of the theoretical postulates that have formed the basis of economic and foreign policy of modern nation states. The policy paradigm underlying the last three centuries of economic growth within nation states and political relations between states, has been characterized by two propositions that are rooted in conventional social science theory: •  Maximization of individual gains in terms of continuous increases in production and consumption, within a competitive framework ensures the maximization of social welfare at the national as well as global levels. •  The economic and political interests of a nation state are best achieved by translating economic gains into military power. The assumption here is that a state can enhance national welfare by initiating, or being part of an initiative for projecting imperial power over other states. These propositions now need to be questioned because of the increased inter dependence of people and states on each other and on the ecology within which they function. Let us briefly critique each of these propositions to lay the basis of proposing an alternative paradigm of policy, as this region develops a leadership role in the world: (a) First, the idea that competition alone ensures an efficient outcome may not be necessarily true in all cases in view of the work by Nobel Prize winning economist John Nash, who proved mathematically that in some cases the equilibrium, which maximizes individual gains, could be achieved through cooperation rather than competition. The Nash Equilibrium solution may be particularly relevant in the context of India-Pakistan relations. Consider. India, if it is to sustain its high growth rate, will require sharply increased imports of oil, gas and industrial raw materials from West and Central Asia, for which Pakistan is the most feasible conduit. Similarly India's economic growth, which has so far been based on the domestic market will in the immediate future require rapidly increasing exports for which Pakistan and other South Asian countries are an appropriate market. Thus the sustainability of India's economic growth requires close cooperation with Pakistan. Conversely, peace and cooperation with India is essential for Pakistan, if it is to achieve a GDP growth rate of 8 to 9 percent, overcome poverty and build a democracy based on a tolerant and pluralistic society. It is clear therefore that governments in India and Pakistan will need to move out of the old mindset of a zero-sum game, where gains by one side are made at the expense of the other. Now the welfare of both countries can be maximized through joint gains within a framework of cooperation rather than conflict. The missing dimension of the relationship between competition and welfare in conventional economic theory is that of institutions. The recent work of another Nobel Prize winning economist, Douglas North has shown that if competitive markets are to lead to efficacious outcomes, then they must be based on a set of underlying institutions. He defines institutions in terms of constraints to behaviour for achieving shared objectives within an appropriate combination of incentives and disincentives. We can apply Douglas North's principle to identify the imperative for emerging economic powers to seek a broad framework of cooperation for the efficient functioning of a competitive global economy. Our proposed logic of locating competitive markets within broader institutional structures of cooperation at the regional and global levels is necessitated by the integrated ecology of the planet. Global cooperation in environmental protection, poverty reduction and defusing the flash points of social conflict and violence will become the essential underpinning of sustainable development and human security in this century. (b) The second proposition in conventional social science theory and political practice, that the economic welfare and political influence of a nation state can be best achieved by translating economic gains into military power is also questionable. In the new world that is now taking shape, the influence of an emerging power will be determined not by the magnitude of the destruction it can wreak on other countries but by its contribution to enhancing life in an inter-dependent world. Thus it is not the military muscle of a state that will be the emblem of status, but its contribution to meeting the challenge of peace, overcoming global poverty and protecting the planet from environmental disaster. Meeting these challenges will require a deeper understanding of the processes that shape nature and human societies, as well as a deeper awareness of our inner self and our shared civilizational wellsprings. Thus, as South Asia pursues a leadership position in the global economy, it would also have to strive to reach the cutting edge of human knowledge in the natural and social sciences. At the same time it would have to bring to bear its value system rooted in the experience of humanity that is evoked in its diverse literary and philosophical traditions. This is the first of a three part series of articles based on a paper delivered by the author on 16 th May 05, at the SAFMA Conference on Evolving the South Asian Fraternity.

The Political Economy Of Reconstruction

The Political Economy Of Reconstruction

Dr.Akmal Hussain

Newspaper: Daily Times  Dated: Sunday, October 30, 2005

Comprehending the scale of the earthquake disaster in Kashmir should be a humbling experience for all of us. The dead and the injured can be counted but the human suffering is immeasurable. The people and government of Pakistan as indeed the world, rallied to provide relief. Yet the sheer scale of the disaster, the inaccessibility of some of the affected areas, and the institutional weakness of the Pakistan government meant that relief, inspite of the best intentions was woefully inadequate. Now as the process of reconstruction begins it may be helpful to examine what it will take to do an adequate job. In undertaking reconstruction, the nature of the problem must be grasped: In a single earth shaking moment the structures of government and economy in Azad Kashmir were demolished. What is required therefore is nothing less than the reconstruction of the economic and political life of the people in that region. Given this aim, financial resources are a necessary but not a sufficient condition for successful reconstruction. The crucial determinant of success will be establishing the vital institutions for translating finance into measurable outcomes: sustainable livelihoods, housing, schools, medical facilities and transportation and communications infrastructure. Let us first indicate the resource constraint and the associated political imperatives. After the emergency donors conference organized by the UN in Geneva on 26th October, it is clear that with donor commitment of merely 580 million dollars, foreign aid can only play a supplementary role in a reconstruction effort that my own back of the envelope calculation suggests, is likely to cost at least 7 billion dollars. Consider. For an estimated population of 4.4 million people displaced in Azad Kashmir the housing cost with an average of six occupants per house (current average family size) at the minimum prevailing construction cost will be US $ 3.5 billion; the construction cost of building 400 basic health units (required for providing minimal medical services to the target population) and 3 district level general hospitals (of 180 beds each) together with modern equipment, comes to 33 million dollars; the cost of building the minimally required 14,666 schools (120 children per 3 room-school) is another 37 million dollars. Thus minimum housing, health and school facilities alone will cost US $ 4.2 billion. Add another 3 billion US dollars for reconstructing transportation and communications infrastructure and construction of small dams and water channels for irrigation. This takes the construction costs of economic and social infrastructure to roughly US $ 7.2 billion. Even if the US $ 0.58 billion pledged by donors at Geneva is forthcoming, it still means that the government of Pakistan will have to mobilize at least US $ 6.62 billion on its own. How can this be done? Given the political constraints of the federal government with respect to the provinces, this reconstruction budget for Azad Kashmir cannot be financed by transferring the development funds normally allocated to Pakistan's provincial governments. The government may be well advised to postpone the expenditure of US $ 1.5 billion planned for the purchase of F-16s and to make sharp cuts in its own administrative expenditure. However any foreseeable expenditure cuts in defence and administration would not be enough to finance the required 6.62 billion US dollars. A possible way of mobilizing the necessary funds would be to initiate a SAARC Fund for the reconstruction of Kashmir. This however can only be done by quickly resolving the Kashmir dispute with India and based on the powerful political leverage this would give to Pakistan, invite substantial donations from SAARC countries as well as the advanced industrial countries. Kashmir and its people have been devastated. What remains except pain and suffering? In this hour of calamity, the governments of Pakistan and India should end strife and draw upon their shared humanity for a joint effort to reconstruct the lives of the very Kashmiris whom each country claims as its brethren. Such an initiative would begin a new epoch of well-being and security not only for Kashmir but also for all the peoples of India and Pakistan. Whatever financial resources are made available for the reconstruction effort, it is important to build the institutional framework for utilizing these funds efficiently and for sustaining the economic and social life of the people. Three types of institutional structures need to be put into place: (1) An apex non-governmental organization that can bring together and coordinate the large number of development NGOs already working in local infrastructure development. The Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund, which works with a number of partner organizations for poverty alleviation can enlarge its scope to coordinate a broader range of small development NGOs to design local infrastructure development programmes through the participatory development methodology for each union council in Azad Kashmir. Voluntary groups of NGOs can then be allocated particular union councils for integrated action to implement these plans. (2) An apex non-governmental organization for the provision of health care and education facilities at the local level. Medium sized development NGOs such as SUNGI, which has already graduated from a local level to a district level NGO and is conducting poverty alleviation work in a number of districts in the NWFP and Azad Kashmir can provide a framework for the provision of community health and education facilities at the tehsil level. It can bring together a large number of small autonomous NGOs for reconstructing communities through social mobilization, and enabling the provision of health care and education facilities through the participatory development methodology. (3) Public-private partnerships to establish corporations for constructing large scale infrastructure projects such as roads, telecommunications, medium sized dams for hydroelectric power and irrigation channels in Azad Kashmir. These corporations, which should be run by high quality professional managers, should include amongst their shareholders the poor people of Azad Kashmir. Poor households can be given loans from the government and private sector financial institutions to acquire equity in these corporations, and the loans can then be paid back from the dividends accruing from the investments of these corporations. Thus the poor people of Azad Kashmir can be brought into the mainstream of the economy, and poverty alleviation can thereby be built into the process of economic reconstruction. Multilateral institutions and International donors who are concerned with poverty alleviation can then be asked to provide loans to the poor to enable them to become equity holders in the large public private infrastructure development corporations. If India and Pakistan were to undertake the reconstruction effort jointly a much larger volume of investment resources and loans for the poor could be forthcoming from Indian investors and financial institutions. As Pakistan undertakes the great human endeavour of reconstructing the economic life of the people in Azad Kashmir, it faces new challenges of peace and institution building. In this article, I have argued that the required financial resources cannot be mobilized unless Pakistan takes a bold initiative of arriving at a peace settlement with India, and thereby beginning a new epoch of development and human security in South Asia. I have also indicated an institutional framework for reconstruction and human development in Kashmir, which if successfully achieved, can contribute to pro poor growth in the rest of South Asia

Taking The Peace Process Forward

Taking The Peace Process Forward

Dr.Akmal Hussain

Newspaper: Daily Times  Dated: Thursday, September 23, 2004

That the peace process between India and Pakistan is driven by the aspirations of civil society and the imperatives of state power is well recognized. What is not, however, is the critical role of mental attitudes in the dynamics of the peace dialogue. On the eve of the meeting in New York between President Musharraf and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh it may be useful to assess where we are in the peace process and to locate the issue of consciousness in its dynamics. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh alluded to the role of consciousness in the material forces of history when he graciously invited some of us in the South Asia Centre for Policy Studies for a chat over tea at his house on 30th August 2004. I suggested how great the gains of peace were for both India and Pakistan and how history had placed him and the Pakistani leadership in a position to make history by actualizing these potential gains for the people of both countries. He responded with an incisive remark: “The gains from peace are immense. However, old attitudes of strife, mistrust and suspicion could lead us to a sub-optimal solution.”  He went on to say that he is however, willing to make a “new beginning” and any ideas for peace would have his fullest support. This remark signifies a refreshingly new attitude, which jibes well with President Musharraf's statement in New York yesterday that he wishes to carry forward the peace process through “courage and boldness”. Yet while the Musharraf-Manmohan attitudes may be in harmony, there is dissonance within their respective power structures. It is this dialectic that will determine the pace and trajectory of the peace process. How then are we to understand this moment in the peace process? It can be argued that three main features condition the present conjuncture and the future possibilities of the peace process: (i)                 We are at a watershed moment, because the majority of the people in both Pakistan and India now feel strongly that their security and material welfare lies in establishing a lasting peace between the two countries. The voices from the ground are beginning to influence those who wield state power. Pakistan's Foreign Minister, Mian Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri who has conducted Pakistan's Foreign Policy with courage and consummate skill, in a statement on arrival in New Delhi on September 4, said, “It is better that governments of the two countries be guided by what people want. People want peace”. (ii)               The governments in both India and Pakistan have grasped that rapid economic growth is essential as much for nation building as it is for strengthening the state. Consider. India with its high GDP growth rate, aspires to become a major global economic power in the foreseeable future. This was explicitly stated by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in his first press conference on 4th September at Vigyan Bhavan, New Delhi, “….I had then suggested to the Lok Sabha that the emergence of India as a major global power happens to be one such idea whose time has come and I do believe that I have a vision, in which we will all work together to realize that ambitious goal.” An examination of India's growth process shows that there are two necessary conditions for sustaining its present high GDP growth and fulfilling the Prime Minister's vision: (a) India's import requirements for oil and industrial raw materials will increase rapidly in the years ahead. It is clear that India will need to import oil, gas and industrial raw materials from Central and West Asia across Pakistan. (b) India's economic growth which has so far been based predominantly on the domestic market, will have to rely increasingly on exports to the large South Asian market. Thus peace with Pakistan is a strategic imperative for India. In the case of Pakistan a high GDP growth is necessary to combat poverty, which at its present high level is undermining the social fabric and fueling extremist tendencies that threaten both the nation and the state. As President Musharraf pointed out recently the principal threat to Pakistan's national security is not external but internal. It is apparent that the process of domestic and foreign investment for high GDP growth in Pakistan requires peace and economic cooperation with India. Thus for the first time in Pakistan peace with India has become essential for both national integrity and national security. (iii)             Sustaining democracy in India and achieving it in Pakistan requires the nurturing of a pluralistic society where the institutions of both civil society and state, cultivate tolerance and broad based participation in governance. In the past, conflict between the two states has been sustained by a mutual demonization, which has fuelled tendencies in each country towards religious extremism, ethnicity and social violence. It is only through experiencing the shared human identity, can the more specific denominations of language, culture and religion be sustained without fratricidal conflict. We have argued that the economic logic of peace is integrated with the nurturing of a humane consciousness for building stable pluralistic democracies within the independent states of Pakistan and India. It is within this context that the initiation of a composite dialogue for peace acquires meaning. The nature of this dialogue is that the process of resolving political disputes (primarily Kashmir) is to be conducted simultaneously with the process of economic cooperation. The sense in which this composite dialogue is a break from the past is that the resolution of one process has not been made conditional on the other. The pace of the two processes will be necessarily different because of their different nature and internal dynamics. Indeed rapid progress on the economic front and the associated building of trust and economic stakes in each other's countries would generate synergy for resolving the political disputes. Three conditions may therefore be necessary for sustaining the peace process: (a) Concern about the differing pace of the political and economic elements of the composite dialogue should not be translated into placing pre-conditions on the continuation of the dialogue itself. (b) Both sides should address each other's core concerns in the political dimension, simultaneously and with due flexibility. (For Pakistan, Kashmir, for India, cross border terrorism). (c) Mechanisms should be put into place for ensuring not only that the dialogue is uninterrupted but that it isuninterruptible. Finally, the question of attitudes. States engage in dialogue within the discourse of power. Such power play is often informed by a collective ego, which the interlocutors wield within mindsets of conflict, fear and suspicion. That is why the peace process must be nurtured by a different consciousness, drawn from the shared civilizational heritage of the people on both sides. Let us hope that when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh meets with President Musharraf both will make a new beginning and add a fresh momentum to the peace process through their personal chemistry. To recall a refrain from Shah Hussain, the great Sufi poet of the Punjab: “Buss kar ji, buss kar ji,                      Hunn baat asaan naal huss kar ji”                    [Let bygones be bygones,                     Talk to me now with good cheer]